New Investment Ideas
I don’t usually throw out standalone investment ideas, but these are some I am considering. Here’s my thesis.
- Short the Turkish Lira: Turkey has over extended itself. The economy has grown on the back of significant debt and fiscal stimulus. If that sounds like the U.S., it does. Except that Turkey lacks a strong central bank. And they have also been engaging in some costly military adventurism. Also, I think that the Turks have antagonized the U.S. and Germany to the point these countries would like to see Erdogan stumble.
- Long Vietnam: Vietnam is a growing economy. With an educated and low-wage workforce, they are picking up a lot of manufacturing work from Chinese companies. The China/US trade tiff will drive even more business their way. It gives the Chinese the political cover to tell Trump that they have curtailed exports to the US. The trade here is long the Vietnam (ETF Ticker: VNM)
- Long Interactive (IAC): IAC owns Tinder, Match.com, eHarmony and many other dating sites. That matters because Congress has effectively shut down free dating sites. Almost 3 weeks ago, a new law was passed (FOSTA) that is intended to stop online prostitution. But it was written in a way that forced Reddit, Backpage, and Craigslist to shut down their casual dating sections. (In fact, Backpage was then shut down entirely this week.) Single people now have no option other than paid sites. And IAC owns the best ones. The trade here is the January 2019 $160 calls.
Editor of Moneyball Economics